Well, that was interesting. While much of the region was under a “3” out of “5” on the Threat Index this afternoon, much of the Tri-State only received gusty winds, heavy rain and some small hail, rather than the anticipated significant threat of Severe Weather. The difference maker? The Sun, or lack there of.
Areas such as Southern Missouri, Central Arkansas and Central Kentucky saw an ample amount of sunshine earlier today; that added dose of solar radiation earlier on helped drive temperatures higher and destabilized the lower levels of the atmosphere, essentially locking in the threat of Severe Weather – those two factors did not end up playing into our forecast Thursday. The mild temperatures due to today’s southerly wind flow helped fuel those thunderstorms, but the added cloud cover we dealt with this morning and early afternoon keep things a bit calmer for a good portion of the region.
As the cold front responsible for all of those storms and showers passes south of the Tri-State overnight, clearer and cooler conditions will filter back into the area and allow temperatures to dip into the up[per 30s and low 40s overnight. Friday morning’s low temperature of 41° will only allow high temperatures to peak in the mid to low 50s; we’ll reach 53° under scattered cloud cover as we wrap up the work week. Saturday, on the other hand, will be a different story all together.
Heavy rainfall will reach the Tri-State early Saturday morning and likely linger throughout the day. By the time our Saturday is all said and done, we’re looking at an additional 0.40″ to 0.70″ of rainfall. Make sure you keep those umbrellas handy over the weekend ahead.