Tropical Depression Barry now centered over northwestern Arkansas continues to weaken. Barry will eventually become a remnant low as it will push just northwest of the Tri-State late Tuesday – Wednesday. The moisture has already begun spreading into our area, especially across SE Illinois and Kentucky. The heaviest precipitation is still off to the west and south. Expect a mostly cloudy and muggy day with scattered showers and storms. Highs will top off in the upper 70 in our far southwest areas to the low to mid 80s for the far northern reaches of the Tri-State.
The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area under a 1 out 5 risk for the potential of severe storms this afternoon – evening. The threat is low but the main threats are a brief spin up tornado, damaging winds and flash flooding. As is the case with most tropical systems the upper right quadrant of the system is where you can potential get brief tornadoes, they are generally on the weak, short-lived side.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s through the overnight with a few scattered showers. Tuesday will feature more wide spread shower and thunderstorm activity through the evening. Waves of showers/storms will pivot through the area. Temperatures will get into the low to mid 80s. Once again the SPC has the majority of the area under a 1 out of 5 threat for some isolated severe storms. Primary threats: Brief tornado, damaging winds, flash flooding.
The remnants of Barry should push out of the region late Tuesday – Wednesday. Aside from a morning shower or storm, Wednesday will be mainly dry with hot and steamy conditions developing. Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected, locally higher amounts of 3″ are possible.
This tropical-like airmass unfortunately isn’t going anywhere, if fact heat and humidity are going to get worse. We are likely to see our hottest stretch of weather so far this year beginning Thursday – the weekend. A deep ridge of high pressure builds in through much of the Midwest and Eastern half of the country, highs will be in the mid 90s, and heat indices each day will range from 105 to 115 degrees, and it will remain dry.