Weather Blog

Potential for Severe Weather Thursday

Good Evening,

Today’s afternoon high of 80° marked our warmest day in nearly a week here in the River City; that heat however, as pleasant as it was, will help fuel the threat for Severe Weather over the next 24 to 36 hours. I’m keeping a very close eye on an inbound cold front currently situated across the Great Plains that is already producing significant thunderstorms as well as Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings this evening.

While it is excepted to be a quiet and mild night throughout the Tri-State, that cold front will continue on its eastward trek overnight before reaching our westernmost counties during the predawn hours tomorrow. The latest model data suggests that the first of the storms associated with that frontal boundary will arrive in our Illinoisan counties shortly before 7:00 A.M. Thursday; fortunately these first storms aren’t expected to be Severe in nature.

While we may see some minor intensification during the morning hours on Thursday, the primary threat for Severe Weather will hold off until Thursday afternoon and evening. A secondary line of storms will flow northeastward from the Mississippi Valley and reach our southwestern counties by 1:00 P.M. Heavy rainfall accompanied by strong to potentially Severe storms will affect the region between then and 7:00 P.M. Thursday.

Some of the storms embedded within that afternoon cluster may produce damaging wind gusts and hail larger than an inch in diameter. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entirety of the Tri-State under a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Thursday morning though early that evening. Remember to remain weather aware on Thursday. Unfortunately, the rain will continue to fall into Friday.

Our latest model data suggests that portions of the Tri-State could receive more than 4″ of total precipitation between Thursday morning and Friday night! After the models had seemingly settled on a 2″ to 3″ projection, these latest runs however, have drastically increased the amount of rainfall we’ll see. It depends completely upon the amount of wrap around precipitation we’ll receive from the stalling low on Friday.

Thankfully, the rain will depart the region Friday evening, by Saturday we’ll see plenty of sunshine and warmer weather. After only reaching an afternoon high of 51° as we wrap up that work week, we’ll see a nice surge in temperatures for both Saturday and Easter. Stay safe and make some plans to enjoy that weekend ahead!

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