Unusually Warm, Breezy to Windy & Dry…..Only Spotty Rainfall Late In the Period……
Significant upper ridging with above to well-above normal temperatures, breezy to windy conditions & increasing field, brush, grassland fire potential will dominate this week. 80s will be dominant with a few locations getting to 90. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) will spread southeastward over the area & Moderate Drought (D1) will expand east & southeastward to cover perhaps our northwestern & northern counties.
A surface cold front will arrive late Friday to Friday night & pass into Saturday. A few spotty showers/t’storms are possible. A few are also possible as the front moves back north as a warm front Saturday night-Sunday. With this, it will turn slightly cooler, but heat up once again as the front moves back north (80s to even 90 Sunday-Monday).
A stronger cold front will likely pass at some point Tuesday or so. A few spotty showers & t’storms are possible with this.
The key is that the rainfall does not look widespread or substantial for this period. Any substantial, widespread rainfall will tend to occur in the better dynamics & more appreciable moisture plume northwest of the Tri-State (where severe weather threat may develop).
In fact, I do think that some places will see very, very little or no rain from this as daily rainfall coverage will only run 20-30%. We will monitor.
Dry with Spurt of Cooler Weather…..Some Frost Potential (Most Common Along & North of I-64 & In Eastern Counties of Western Kentucky Counties)……..
It still looks like as we get to the start of mid-October, the coolest weather of the fall season so far should arrive. Highs of 65-70 are likely with lows of 34-41. Patchy frost may occur, with it being the most common along & north of I-64 & in our eastern counties in western Kentucky. A freeze is possible as far south as north-central Illinois.
It will warm up again back above normal rather quickly, but it looks dry.
Above-Normal Temperatures, Then Some Welcome Rainfall & a Cool-Down Similar to the Previous One………Eyes On the Gulf & East Coast Area…..
The Gulf of Mexico & western Caribbean will need to be closely monitored, not only in early October, but mid-October. Conditions will become highly-conducive for rapid develop of a tropical storm/hurricane or two. Some longer-range data suggests one tropical storm/hurricane affecting the Florida area around October 17. During this time a rather strong cold front & upper trough will be approaching & then passing through our area with some very welcome showers & t’storms. Some of these may bring some decent 1″ rainfall to some locations.
There is some evidence of an energy transfer towards a hybrid storm/vigorous Nor’Easter that may develop & ride the East Coast from Florida to the Northeast as a coastal entity or just inland. We will monitor, but there is good probability of some tropical action in the Gulf/Caribbean that will have U.S. impacts & cold front/upper trough diving southward may make for an interesting situation as we turn the tide to late October.
For here, looks like after above normal warmth again (82-87 possible), perhaps some rainfall, then a cool down to highs of 65-70 again with lows of 36-41.
Unseasonable Warm…..Dry with Brush Fire Danger Ramping Up Again……….
It looks like unseasonably warm & dry weather may carry us through much of late October. Analog & long-range model data shows a strong upper ridge taking over the eastern half of North America with the greatest U.S. temperature anomalies from the Dakota & Minnesota, through Michigan to Maine. Here, 80s are possible. Meanwhile, below to well-below temperatures will tend to dominate the western U.S. to Mexico & also over far western Canada & Alaska. Some substantial, rather unusual early-season cold with snow may hit Alaska. Conditions looks right for a series of storms to bring early significant snowfall to interior Alaska.
Despite some rainfall from a mid-month system in our area, brush fire danger may begin to ramp up rapidly & significantly again late month.
Rainfall looks below normal here & for nearly all of the eastern U.S. The only exception would be Louisiana to Florida to Georgia where Bermuda-type high will push disturbed tropical weather into that area with showers & t’storms. The Pacific Northwest looks wet with above to well-above normal rainfall as stream of rainfall sits over that area for days. Flooding over burn areas may become an issue.
Some Rainfall, Then First Widespread General Frost & Freezing Event for the Area Possible……….
After some rainfall with a cold front, the temperature may take a significant drop with the first frost & freezing event for the area as a whole.
NOVEMBER 1-NOVEMBER 10:
Warm, Warm & Dry with Brush Fire Danger………….
The analog & long-range forecast analysis still shows an unseasonably warm, dry pattern for this period as a whole with brush fire danger.
More Active Pattern with More Widespread Rainfalls & Even Some Severe Weather Episodes…..Above/Well-Above Normal Temperatures Tank Below Normal with Hard Killing Freezes……..
Potential of more widespread rainfall & even severe weather will occur in this period as a trend towards a highly meridional flow is noted in the analogs (so, normal to slightly-above normal rainfall projected currently). Following this transition is a tendency for below normal temperatures that may carry into the Thanksgiving period after unusually warm to possibly record warm temperatures at the onset of this period. Many windy to very windy days are likely.
Rainfall in this period could be the most widespread since either the Pacific hurricane/tropical storm remnant rainfall of September 18 or Harvey rainfall from September 1/2 (Hurricane Irma’s rainfall only affected the southeast half of the area).
Moderate to hard, killing freezes are likely.