DETAILED OUTLOOK TODAY-SATURDAY……….
A few passing isolated showers are possible today with overcast skies & gusty southerly winds at 15-26 mph. Highs will reach 57-63.
Tonight, temperatures may fall to 53-58, but then rise to 57-62 by early morning. With overcast skies & light fog, a few passing showers are possible with south winds at 10-20 mph.
Thursday looks windy & mostly cloudy to cloudy with highs of 61-67 with the warmest temperatures in our southeastern areas. Some passing spotty showers are possible, followed by a band of heavy rainfall with an isolated t’storm or two in the evening. South to south-southwest winds will run 15-35 mph through the day.
Widespread steady rainfall is likely overnight Thursday. Sharp, strong cold front will pass Thursday late night-Friday morning over the Tri-State. A tremendous temperature drop from 50s & 60s to 30s will occur suddenly as sharp, gusty northwest winds of 20-40 mph bring the Arctic air in.
The changeover from rain to freezing rain & sleet will occur rather quickly behind the front.
TENTATIVE SCHEDULE OF WEATHER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:
*Winter Storm Watch Issuance from National Weather Service Likely by Tomorrow For A Good Chunk, If Not All of the Tri-State……Potential Exception Is Clay, Richland & Lawrence Counties (May Be Winter Advisory There)*
Thursday Night at Midnight:
Widespread rainfall with ponding in fields & in streets & roads. Front racing into western counties with sudden temperature drop with southerly/south-southwesterly wind going northwesterly at 20-40 mph. Freezing rain begins in Clay, Wayne & Hamilton counties. Temperatures 50s to 60 much of Tri-State, except western areas, with sudden drop to 32.
Friday Morning 2 a.m.:
Gusty northwest winds 20-40 mph rushing into heart of Tri-State with front. All freezing rain along & west of the Wabash River with sleet Clay, Wayne & Hamilton counties. Temperatures falling into 28-32 range along & west of Wabash. 50s in east. Ice accumulation underway over all of our southern Illinois counties with roads icing up.
Friday Morning 4 a.m.:
Gusty northwest winds 20-40 mph Tri-State-wide. Still all rain eastern Dubois to Ohio & Muhlenberg counties, but freezing rain with ice accumulation along & east of U.S. 41 with sleet & accumulation west of U.S. 41. Roads icing up with temperatures 26-32 a good chunk of area with 33-36 far east & southeast.
Friday Morning 6 a.m.:
Gusty northwest to north winds 15-35 mph with freezing rain east of I-69 & sleet west of I-69. Some small limb breakage (especially trees species like Eastern White Pine & Silver Maple) may be occurring on trees from glazing of 0.1″ with gusty winds. Up to a heavy dusting/coating of sleet (up to 0.3″) may be atop glaze west of I-69. Temperatures will be running 24-31 over the Tri-State from northwest to southeast. Roads will be icing up.
Friday Morning 9 a.m.:
Sleet may have ended over Clay, Richland, Wayne & Hamilton counties, while it may be on-going eastward. It may still be all freezing rain Martin to Dubois to Daviess (KY) to McLean & Hopkins counties. Roads will be iced up with gusty north winds at 15-35 mph. Some small limbs may come down with the 0.1″ glaze on surfaces. Heavy dusting/coating of sleet may be on the ground for western 3/4 of area. Line of changeover from freezing rain to sleet will continue to work eastward through late morning, but back edge of the sleet will keep working eastward, as well.
Temperatures will run 23-29 over the area.
Friday 12 a.m. Noon:
Sleet may be on-going Dubois to McLean to Hopkins counties with dusting/coating atop glaze.
It looks like a break with no precipitation west of that area, giving crews timing to really get a good handle on the roads. Conditions on roadways may improve in the western 3/4 during this time, but continue to worsen in eastern/southeastern 1/4.
North winds look gusty at 15-30 mph with temperatures 23-29 over the area.
Friday 2 p.m.:
Sleet may still be on-going Dubois to McLean to Hopkins counties with up to 3/4″ of accumulation atop glazing with very bad road conditions. Conditions will be better westward, giving the fact that a break in the sleet may have occurred for a few hours.
HOWEVER, snow will begin falling during this time over Webster & Henderson counties as the precipitation shield re-expands westward as surface low develops on the Arctic front farther to the southeast.
Temperatures will be running 22-28 over the area with north turning north-northeasterly at 15-30 mph.
As a summary, 0.1″ of glaze ice will be over the entire Tri-State by this time with 0.3-0.0.75″ of sleet atop that glaze.
Friday 4 p.m.:
It may STILL be sleeting Perry to Muhlenberg counties with up to 0.8″ on the ground atop 0.1″ glaze. HOWEVER, looks like ALL SNOW Daviess (IN), Martin, Pike, Dubois, Gibson, Vanderburgh, Warrick, Spencer, Henderson, Daviess (KY), Webster, McLean to Hopkins counties. IT MAY NOT BE DOING ANYTHING WEST OF THESE AREAS, AS VERY SHARP CUT-OFF IN SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER AREA. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS CUT-OFF IS STILL A BIT BLURRY.
Temperatures will run 21-28 with north-northeast winds 15-25 mph.
Snowfall may be accumulating at 1″ or less in the areas getting snowfall at this time (4 p.m.).
Friday 6 p.m.:
Looks like ALL SNOW east of the Wabash River over Knox, Daviess (IN), Martin, Gibson, Pike, Dubois, Posey, Vanderburgh, Warrick, Spencer, Perry, Union, Henderson, Daviess (KY), Webster, McLean, Hopkins, Hancock, Ohio & Muhlenberg counties. The HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW (much lighter, the farther west & northwest you go) will likely be over Perry, Spencer, Daviess (KY), Hancock, Ohio, McLean & Muhlenberg counties. AGAIN, IT MAY NOT BE DOING ANYTHING WEST OF THE WABASH OVER OUR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS COUNTIES, OTHER THAN SPITTING A FEW FLURRIES.
By 6 p.m. 1-2″ of snow may be on the ground atop the ice along the U.S. 231 corridor with 1″ or less westward to the Wabash.
North-northeast winds will still be gusty at 15-25 mph with blowing & drifting snow in areas that are getting the snowfall.
Temperatures will be running 19-26.
Roads will be much worse the farther east you go from the Wabash River, but much better the farther west you go, as Illinois counties may not be getting much.
AGAIN, THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SNOW IS VERY SHARP & COULD FLUCTUATE, SO THIS FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE TWEAKED.
Friday 8 p.m.:
Back edge of snow may east of I-69 with gusty north winds 15-25 mph with temperatures 19-26. Wind will be blowing & drifting any snow.
By this time, there may be 2-4″ of snow on the ground atop the ice from Martin to Dubois to Perry & eastern Spencer, eastern Daviess (KY) to Hancock, Ohio, Muhlenberg, McLean & Hopkins counties.
1-2″ may be on the ground atop the ice Daviess (IN), Pike, Warrick, Vanderburgh, western Spencer, western Daviess (KY), Henderson, Webster to eastern Union counties.
1″ or less of snow may be on the ground atop the ice Knox, Gibson, Posey, western Union counties.
There may only be ice in Illinois & the only precipitation falling……a few flurries.
Roads may be quite bad east of U.S. 41 & especially bad the farther east you go.
Friday 10 p.m.
The back edge of any snow will likely be along & east of U.S. 231 at this point & be light as the snow will make rapid progress eastward between 7 p.m. & 10 p.m.
Wind will still be gusty at 15-25 mph with blowing & drifting snow in areas that will have gotten accumulation. Temperatures will be running likely 17-25 over the area.
Total snowfall atop the ice may reach 2.5-5″ over Martin, Dubois, Perry, eastern Spencer, eastern Daviess (KY), Hancock, Ohio, Muhlenberg, McLean & Hopkins counties.
1-2″ is possible atop the ice over Daviess (IN(, Pike, Warrick, Vanderburgh, western Spencer, western Daviess (KY), Henderson, Webster, eastern Union counties.
1″ or less atop the ice is possible Knox, Gibson, Posey, western Union counties.
It looks like all ice in our southern Illinois counties right now, with only a little dandruff atop the ice in places from flurries.
0.1″ of glaze ice is likely area-wide with 0.25-0.8″ of sleet atop that glaze ice.
TOTAL LIQUID (RAINFALL & MELTED ICE & SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT) WILL RUN 0.80-2″.
BE AWARE THAT THERE MAY STILL BE TWEAKS & SOME FLUCTUATION TO THIS FORECAST AS NEW DATA CONTINUES TO ARRIVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST & SCATTERED FLURRIES & SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 22-28. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE HERE & THERE. BLOWING & DRIFTING WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE IN AREAS THAT DO GET THE SNOWFALL.
I WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN, SLEET & SNOWFALL TOTALS MAP FINISHED & UP HERE ON THE BLOG BY 3 P.M. TODAY