Heat and humidity dominated the Tri-State today. Afternoon highs again topped out in the low 90s with heat indices rising into the triple digits for many of us, yet those two factors will play second fiddle to this post’s primary focus – tomorrow’s threat for Severe Weather.
The Storm Prediction Center of America has placed nearly the whole of the Tri-State under a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Now, the aforementioned heat and humidity will play a large roll in tomorrow’s potential threat, but it will be the combination of an advancing low and inbound cold font that will act as the primary catalyst for Tuesday’s storms.
The latest model data suggests that beginning shortly before 2:00 P.M., a cluster of showers and storms will form east of St. Louis and race eastward towards the Tri-State. From there, sporadic and unorganized shower and thunderstorm activity will continue on throughout the afternoon and linger into the evening. The Severe Weather threat will likely come to an end tomorrow evening between 10:00 P.M. and 11:00 P.M.
Fortunately, there’s not expected to be a particularly strong upper-level jet settled in over the region tomorrow. That will help keep the threat of tornadic rotation to a minimum, though the excess heat and humidity at the surface will further fuel any storm that develops tomorrow, maintaining our damaging wind and large hail threat.
Shower and storm chances are expected to continue into Wednesday morning before exiting the region that afternoon. Thankfully, we’ll be able to bid farewell to the 90s after Tuesday evening as a cold front finally sinks to our south during the day on Wednesday. It appears as though additional shower and storm chances will arrive for the weekend – current model runs show a low stalling out over the Hoosier State during that period.