Following a prolonged period of dry weather across the Tri-State, Mother Nature is expected to flip the script on us during the next week. Multiple weather-makers swinging eastward from the Great Plains over the next six to eight days may supply the region with potentially significant rainfall totals along with the potential for Severe Weather.
Let’s start with that Risk for Severe Weather: the Storm Prediction Center of America has placed the entirety of the Tri-State under a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for our Wednesday. An approaching core of low pressure interacting with the excess heat and added humidity at the surface will generate scattered shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day tomorrow. Some of those thunderstorms may be capable of generating string winds and small hail.
That threat will shift eastward on Thursday but will remain in effect for much of the region due to the low’s associated cold front interacting with the aforementioned heat and humidity. A broken line of showers and storms is expected to fire up along the leading edge of the cold front that afternoon.
Rain chances are expected to remain a mainstay throughout our extended forecast. In fact some of our latest long range model data is indicating that parts of the Tri-State could receive between 2″ and 4″ of total precipitation through next Wednesday morning!
Fortunately, while these current model runs seem a bit ominous, a lot can change between now and the middle part of next week. We’ll continue to keep a very close eye on our rain chances and report upon and diversions from the current trends as the week continues.