After a few early morning storms, it looks like not just one bow of severe storms, but two. One should race through with a damaging wind threat late morning-early afternoon & then another with a damaging wind threat in the evening. Second one looks to affect much or all of the Tri-State. First one looks more likely along & north of Ohio River. First looks triggered more by the MCV or old vortex of the Plains outbreak associated with the rapid pressure drop of so many storms. The second looks more in association with the main trough & jet streak that was the trigger for the Plains outbreak in the first place last night.
Guidance suggests atmosphere should recover to support second bow, following the first. Also, good shear & dynamics with unstable airmass should support two rounds. Some localized flash flooding is possible, given two round of heavy storms despite fast eastward movement at 50-60 mph.
A few storms may linger into part of area tonight on tail end of bow. Watch for some localized flash flooding.
After a break, a few spotty storms will bubble up tomorrow afternoon & pass NW to SE over the area.
Saturday looks dry & hot, but we need to watch early Sunday morning for potential MCS or complex of storms with wind threat to affects part of the Tri-State.
Monday-Wednesday looks dry & very warm to hot right now. We need to watch for a complex of storms to skim by us to the north & northeast Thursday in the “Ring of Fire”.