A summer-like pattern will continue to dominate………..
It looks warm to very warm & humid & summer-like for the next 7 days. However, today is the last day without any potential of rainfall. Scattered showers/t’storms will occur periodically tonight-next Tuesday. Some severe threat may occur at times, but it does not look widespread. This is good news for areas that did not receive any rainfall from last Thursday evening storms or Wednesday evening-night’s storms. This rain will help get the corn & soybean crop off & running.
A few storms are possible along outflow boundary(ies)/gust front(s) tonight-tomorrow morning from severe weather event to our west & northwest of multiple bows of severe t’storms. This/these boundary(ies) will hang around the area Tuesday even as any morning storms exit/diminish with capping developing. As a shortwave ejects into the area from the Plains (cold pocket aloft), cap should be removed & new storms will likely initiate along the outflow boundary in the Tri-State in the late afternoon-evening.
Storms should diminish tomorrow night, but some new scattered storms should fire along this boundary Wednesday. These should diminish Wednesday night.
As low pressure moves through the Southeast U.S. (with heavy rainfall), front will get hung up with storm outflow boundaries over the area. With daily heating, scattered showers & storms will fire daily, especially in the afternoon & evening. Subtle shortwaves will also be ejecting from the Plains, along with occasional side-swipes of stronger winds aloft. This may bring a couple/few instances of some severe potential for the area, but as stated above, nothing looks widespread at this point.
Spread out over a 7-day period, rainfall totals of 1.25-4.5″ are expected.
It should turn much drier by next Wednesday, but remain warm with highs in the 80s. We will likely see a night in the 50s, however. This is rare for what will be an unusually warm & humid May with many nights in the 60s & 70s.
After that, the next potential of storms is around May 28 as 90s return.
In fact, highs in the 80s & 90s look to dominate the rest of May, making May 2018 one of the warmest on record.
We may have a few days between June 8 & 13 where temperatures drop slightly below normal, otherwise the heat is on to the end of June! Rainfall looks slightly below normal to the end of June overall.