Good Thursday morning,
Clouds and a few scattered rain/snow showers will be the theme Thursday afternoon-evening hours as cold front moves through the region. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation, it will be on the light side. Not anticipating any significant issues. Temperatures should remain above freezing while the precipitation is around. After temperatures hit the low 40s, winds will shift out of the northwest, with decreasing clouds overnight will fall to the low to mid 20s across the area.
Friday doesn’t look to bad, it will be another cold day with highs only reaching the mid to upper 30s, but staying dry with a mix of sun and clouds. The cloud cover increases Friday night into Saturday. Right now most of Saturday appears dry, temperatures getting into the mid 30s.
As for our impending winter storm…It’s going to be a juicy storm system, the area of low pressure is moving ashore along Southern California, another area of low pressure will develop over Texas, pulling in the Gulf of Mexico moisture. Most of the guidances keep the heaviest precipitation south of the Tri-State, the further south you are in the region, the better chance of seeing any accumulation. There is going to be a very sharp cutoff between no precipitation to some accumulation from north to south.
Last EURO run keeps most of the moisture out of the region.
GFS is a bit more north but, like the EURO keeps the heaviest moisture out of the Tri-State.
Looks like snow, sleet or freezing rain will move in late Saturday through early Sunday. Still some uncertainties in track, overall intensity and temperature profiles. But the trend this morning has been to keep the heaviest moisture south of the area. Precipitation should end Sunday night early Monday morning.
I expect more flip flopping as far as the models go but here’s our first call on snowfall amounts, best chance for accumulation will be in our southern areas.
Temperatures will rebound back to the 40s by the start of next week.