In their latest convective outlook, the Storm Prediction Center of America has expanded today’s Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather to include some of our Illinois Counties across the Wabash; the rest of the Tri-State still remains under a Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather for this late afternoon and evening
In addition to the newly expanded Enhanced Risk, the National Weather Service has placed Wabash, Edwards, Wayne, White, Hamilton, and Saline Counties in Illinois under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8:00 P.M. CT. The reason for that Watch is a well-defined line of storms that developed west of the Mississippi earlier this afternoon and has since intensified on its way across Southern Illinois toward the Tri-State.
The latest model data indicates that the aforementioned line of storms will reach our westernmost counties (the ones named in that Severe Thunderstorm Watch) between 6:00 P.M. and 6:30 P.M. The line’s northeast trajectory means it may take as long as another hour and a half for the leading edge to reach Evansville.
From Evansville at 8:15 P.M., the line will trek up the Ohio Valley and reach Owensboro around 9:15 P.M. It’s likely that by that time, the line will have degraded slightly and will no longer resemble its current defined state; the then cluster of storms may still pack a punch. The last of the storms will exit east of the region by 11:00 P.M. bringing an end to our risk for Severe Weather.
The bowing structure of the line indicates that the primary threat from this evening’s storms will be damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 mph. However, large hail and isolated tornadic rotation remains a possibility for the western half of the region (including Evansville). 44 Weather will continue to keep you informed on the situation as it continues to evolve during the evening ahead.