Best potential of severe weather will remain west of the Tri-State today-this evening. However, the potential is not zero (see below).
Squall line/band of storms should fire to the west today, while blizzard conditions will be on-going over northwestern Minnesota & eastern North Dakota. Some severe gusts & an isolated brief tornado or two are possible northwestern Illinois to far eastern Oklahoma.
Here, numerous showers & storm should fire in a conveyor belt ahead of the line. With time, these will disrupt it & it will tend to lose its sharp definition on radar.
However, southwest wind gusts of 40-50 mph may be mixed down to the ground as some buoyancy will exist, so some updrafts will have the ability to force rain-enhanced downdrafts to the ground (given +50 mph low-level wind fields with a layer of some dry air). Also, given the sharpness of the front, some 40-50 mph gusts may occur with the more diffuse squall line. An isolated +55 mph gust cannot be ruled out for a node in the line that is not as interrupted by all of the rainfall ahead of it. This will occur largely overnight.
The main area of rainfall will exit tomorrow morning, but with some areas breaks in the clouds, a few light showers may still occur in the afternoon.
Southwest winds tonight will be strong ahead of the front & with its passage at 25-40 mph with potential of gusts +40 mph.
Gusts after the frontal passage & into tomorrow will run 25-35 mph with sustained winds at 15-20 mph from the northwest.
After highs in the 60s around midnight, temperatures will drop into the 40s by morning & remain there all day.