Today looks good weather-wise with highs well into the 50s with lots of sunshine. It will turn cloudy tonight with lows of 34-43 initially (southeast to northwest), followed by a rise to 42-50 by 7 a.m.
Band of rainfall with isolated t’storms possible will pass Wednesday morning-early afternoon. Some bits/spotty drizzle, light showers are possible after the band, but much of the rainfall will be over about a 4-hour period. Temperatures should be pretty steady at 48-51 during the rain, but after the rainfall, rally to 53-59. Some clearing is even possible in our western & northwestern areas. South-southwest winds will run 15-25 mph by afternoon.
Thursday will feature 50s with sun, but warm front will rapidly surge northward Friday PM, bathing us in strong south-southwest PM winds & late afternoon highs of 58-65, before seeing an overnight high temperature of 65-70. Winds may gust to 40 mph Friday night.
Strength of the cold front & howling winds through the lower atmosphere with directional shear all support QLCS squall line with severe weather threat (wind, few isolated brief, weak tornadoes). Current problem is instability. This looked like a problem for this event last week. Models were better Sunday & Monday, forecasting enough instability with that shear for severe. Today, data is consistently backing off the instability as more of the stable air from the cold Thursday night & surface high to our southeast is recycled in.
All that said, this still bears close monitoring. Today, we are sort of back where we were late last week with better severe potential Missouri to Arkansas & Louisiana with more isolated severe risk northern Illinois to perhaps our far western counties. Time will tell. Shear has been consistently forecast to be very high with screaming low-level jet Friday night. Instability for nice buoyant, surface-based updrafts, not so much.
Following this system, Saturday should feature sun with a howling west wind to 40 mph with afternoon temperatures in the 50s.
Much colder air should come in Sunday with highs in the 39-46 range with a bit less wind & perhaps some low clouds over mainly our northeastern half.
We should be back to 47-53 Monday after 23-26 in the morning with sunshine. Tuesday looks warmer ahead of a cold front with increasing winds from the southwest as highs reach 57-65.
Sharply colder weather is due in around Thanksgiving & beyond. Highs on a couple of days may only run in the 34-40 range over the area with the potential of a few snow flurries.
Overall, a colder-than-normal & drier-than-normal pattern should dominate to the start of December.
A wetter & warmer-than-normal regime may tend to dominate December 3-14.