Round #1 of the showers & t’storms is exiting the far eastern/southeastern edge of the Tri-State now. Sunshine is appearing & temperatures are warming in this humid, tropical airmass.
The cold front & band of strong mid & upper level winds will arrive late afternoon-evening.
In normal circumstances, you would look at this situation as a robust severe weather event ahead with perhaps a Tornado Watch & eventually multiple warnings because the winds aloft will become strong, there is plenty of warm, tropical air in place, cloud bases are very low (for relatively easy mesocyclone & funnel formation) & there is a sharp wind direction change for tornado formation in the lowest 4,500′ of the troposphere.
However, there are key ingredients missing for this. One, the main cold pocket is completely displaced from the warm sector (where the sun is coming out in a zone of the where the surface cold front & band of strong mid & upper level winds overlay eachother). This cold pocket is potent to our northwest where t’storms have occurred with small hail in Kansas & Nebraska with 40s! Omaha’s Eppley Airfield ASOS reported a t’storm & heavy rainfall with 41 degrees this morning! If this would overlay that warm, sheared, dynamic sector, supercells with large hail & tornado threat could occur.
Also, although there is a sharp wind direction change & cloud bases are very low in this tropical airmass in the lower 4,500′ of the troposphere, the winds are NOT strong in this change. To tighten mesocyclone & get good, sustained funnel formation, such a wind direction change needs to be accompanied by higher wind speeds.
Indeed, there is decent CAPE (given shear/dynamics) with hot spots of 1400-1700 J/kg CAPE in mid levels & near surface for updraft buoyancy & there is a noted dry layer at mid-levels for enhanced wind gusts in the t’storms with the best CAPE, but updraft acceleration is hampered by that continued lack of cold air aloft.
The sun will steepen the lapse rate some (warms near surface & this creates more of a difference in temperature as you go up), but it will not be enough to make for more robust situation.
ALL THIS SAID, isolated severe weather threat still seems very reasonable for very late afternoon to evening (4p-10p). This MARGINAL RISK, per SPC, would encompass the potential of an isolated, brief, weak tornado or two, or a brief severe gust. Any isolated hailer would tend to have stones that would be sub-severe (<1″ in diameter).
So, some ingredients, yes, but a lack some main ones……………MARGINAL RISK will remain.