SUMMERY NOW…………….BURST OF FALL COMING…………
You want fall? You got it! However, we still have summery weather until perhaps early next week.
The One Great Forecast Wildcard In An Otherwise Pretty Status Quo Forecast………
Forecast is pretty much status quo since yesterday, but there is a wild card. There will be a likely Category 2 hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast. If it tracks toward Alabama or Florida, it will have little impact on the Tri-State. However, if it tracks farther west & makes a Louisiana landfall, it could bring direct impacts with rainfall & also a PRE. This would be a good set up for a PRE or Predecessor Rainfall Event for our area. A weakening front will be in our area & the flow behind the front from the north/northwest & southeast & east ahead of it (from the hurricane) will make for a band of impressive convergence over our area. This, combined with deep tropical moisture being thrown northwestward could make for a band of heavy rainfall for part or nearly all of the area. This would also bring down the high temperatures for Sunday & Monday, likely keeping them in the 70-75 range.
It is unclear how far west the hurricane will track & the National Hurricane Center has more of a northwest Florida track. That said, given lack of confidence in the hurricane track & thus placement of it’s rainfall & potential PRE, I kept forecast as is.
One other thing that has not changed in the forecast (besides the warmth) is the storm system & strong cold front of Tuesday. The shear, dynamics & upper diffluence, along with CAPE support the potential of some severe weather in our area. It does not look widespread at the moment, as the hurricane will tend to lock up the deepest moisture & strongest return of muggy, unstable air. However, conditions support at least Marginal Risk with Slight farther west & southwest. We will monitor.
Otherwise, expect a few showers overnight-Thursday morning, mainly in our northwestern & northern area with otherwise variable clouds. I say “variable” because it may be mostly cloudy much of the day in our northwestern & far northern areas, but partly cloudy to even mostly sunny farther southeastward. As a result, highs will vary from around 80 in the northwest to the mid & upper 80s farther southeastward.
Friday looks breezy & partly cloudy area-wide with highs 84-90 with only a few isolated t’storms Saturday with cold front & highs 84-88 with windy conditions.
Again, went isolated t’storms for now Sunday & Monday with front around with 80s until main cold front passes Tuesday.
Wednesday looks much cooler with partly to mostly cloudy skies, windy conditions & highs only 62-67 with lows in the 40s Wednesday night.