SLIGHT RISK of severe is up for our northeastern counties (Daviess [IN], Martin & Dubois) with MARGINAL RISK for the rest of the Tri-State.
Looks like two broken lines of t’storms will develop before they eventually merge into one line along or south of the Ohio River. A couple/few severe gusts &/or isolated hail are possible. Better severe potential will exist to our northeast toward eastern/northeastern Indiana & Ohio where flow & shear will be better.
Black Locust Winter/Dogwood Winter will be here Friday-Monday morning…….
This will follow a much cooler, breezy Friday with periodic showers & elevated t’storms with the heaviest rainfall coming through Friday night-early Saturday (with some local flash flooding possible).
Saturday looks windy, dreary & showery with north & northeast winds to 32 mph. Sunday may feature a few morning showers, followed by some clearing, but windy & cool weather. Winds may gust from the north to 35 mph.
-3″ of total rainfall will occur today p.m. to Sunday a.m. Right now, the heaviest totals look to occur south of the Ohio River over western Kentucky with the lightest totals in the northern areas of the Tri-State. From northeastern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas to southeast Missouri, 3-5″ of rainfall are possible.
Highs Friday will run only in the 50s to lower 60s, followed by 50s Saturday & 50s & 60s Sunday. The coldest early morning looks to be Monday with lows of 37-44 from northeast to southwest (41 Evansville area).
Farmers, even though we have a lot of rain coming when you add up what we will get today p.m. to Sunday a.m. & it is going to get quite cool, no worries. Reason is that nearly, if not all of next week looks breezy to windy & dry with temperatures shooting back up to the 80s by Wednesday-Friday & even Tuesday will see 75-80!
85-91 is possible area-wide May 5-8!
Analog data of similar events at similar times of year over the past several decades below………shows severe weather probability based on those events & similarities (data from St. Louis University):
Showers/embedded t’storms Friday & then heavy rainfall with embedded t’storms Friday night-early Saturday via NAM 3km Simulated Radar Reflectivity from Levi Cowan & tropicaltidbits.com: