THURSDAY, APRIL 20-MONDAY, APRIL 24:
Some Severe Weather with 80s, Then Much Cooler, Wet & Raw with Couple of Cold Nights……..
Two lines of storms will pop & pass through Thursday afternoon-evening. Main threat is a few severe gusts & perhaps a few hailers. Any semi-discrete storms may produce isolated large hail (1-1.25″ diameter).
Highs will run 80-86 with south-southwest winds at 15-32 mph with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy.
The better flow aloft should be to our northeast from eastern Indiana to Ohio, so more widespread severe weather may occur there. Nonetheless, a few severe storms may still occur here.
New showers will return Friday as skies become quickly overcast again with northeast winds at 10-20 mph.
First showers will already arrive by late morning-midday. Additional rainfall & isolated thunder will arrive late afternoon.
Highs will run only 57-64.
The heaviest rainfall of the system may pass Friday night-Saturday morning as rain with embedded elevated t’storms pass through. Winds will increase Friday night from 10-20 mph to 20-35 mph from the northeast.
After the heaviest rainfall, showery, drizzly, nasty weather will be with us Saturday with strong east to northeast to north winds at 20-35 mph & highs only in the 50s.
Any showers will exit Sunday morning, followed by mostly cloudy skies, which will tend to clear later in the day. North winds will be strong at 20-35 mph with highs only at 58-64.
Between Thursday & Sunday morning (the two systems), rainfall of 1-3″ is likely area-wide.
Turning Windy & Warm with Dry Weather Until Potential of Severe Weather at End of Week-Early Weekend……….
A rapid warm-up will ensue next week at cold mornings at 37-43 Sunday & Monday. After 65-70 Monday, 75-80 is likely Tuesday, followed by 80-85 Wednesday. A big storm with a significant Rockies snowstorm & potentially substantial Plains severe outbreak will take place mid- to late-next week.
For farmers, after the wet weather & brief cool-snap, dry, windy, very warm weather will rapidly dry out ponded fields & wet soils!
Severe weather may impact at least part of the Tri-State either next Friday night (April 28) or Saturday, April 29.
80s will dominate mid- to late-next week.
APRIL 30-MAY 4:
We may see a spurt of below-normal temperatures with highs near 60 to the middle 60s & lows in the 30s & 40s any severe weather.
Big Warm-Up with Record Heat Not Far Away……Record Cold High Plains/Rockies with Snow….Violent Plains Weather
This will occur before we skyrocket back to the 80s (perhaps to 90) around May 5-8. Big question is how far north & west the record warmth gets. It appears that record warmth of 90s to near 100 may occur from the mid-Atlantic to Georgia & Alabama during that time. Temps as high as 95-99 are possible eastern Georgia, North Carolina over the worsening drought.
It also looks like widespread 88-94 temperatures Mississippi & Arkansas to Texas. The wetter soils & lusher vegetation will temper that heat in Texas some, but also lead to higher humidity.
Here, I prefer to go with 85-90, but if we could cut down on the precip & bring the greatest sinking air more north & west, then 90-93 would be possible.
It is interesting to note that during this time, there may be record cold & unseasonable, heavy snowfall in the Rockies & perhaps the western Dakotas to Nebraska. Violent severe weather may occur Minnesota & Iowa to Oklahoma, especially on the dry line.
Severe Weather Possible, Then Cool Snap, Then Back to Very Warm Weather……..
We may see severe weather around late May 8 or 9, followed by a substantial cool snap to 50s & 60s. Temps should shoot back up to 84-88 around May 14-16.
May 17-19 shows intense heat in the southeastern U.S. with highs 94-99 Alabama to South Carolina, while after storms around May 17, we may see 70s to May 21.
Normal April-May rainfall is 9.73″. Rainfall looks normal for these two months. I really think farmers will get crops out in a very timely manner between rains & there is no strong indicator of a pattern that supports lots of flooding over our region now-May 21. Drying time between rainfall events will help to prevent fungal problems & disease issues in wheat. Corn stands should develop quickly with these periods of nice warm.
Even with the wetness now-weekend, windy & 80s will dry things out next week. There have been years when it is never-ending with rainfall & long stretches of cool weather, but it looks like a good mix the rest of April to May.