A pretty widespread severe weather episode will unfold today-tonight to our north & northwest.
This will weaken late tonight-early Thursday AM with southeastward progression.
New storms will pop in our area & region tomorrow afternoon-evening in the form of two lines of storms.
A few severe storms are possible with the main threats being severe gusts & large hail. Although it looks like a linear situation, a few embedded discrete or pseudo-discrete cells may occur, as well. Those would tend to produce the large hail.
Model data courtesy of Levi Cowan & tropicaltidbits.com:
Analog guidance (past similar situations) with severe probabilities……
Evansville area forecast sounding:
You can see wind flow aloft is largely unidirectional & you can also see the surface CAPE increasing to +1500 by afternoon with temperatures warming into the 80s. This steepening lapse rate will occur not only with the heating, but with cooling temperatures aloft, promoting storm development.
Although the strongest flow aloft will be northeast of the Tri-State, this flow, the lapse rates & unstable airmass still favor some severe storms & I would not be surprised to see the Slight Risk expanded (per SPC) a bit southeastward to part of the Tri-State.