THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON:
A CULMINATION OF YEARS WITH VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS (1850-1894 RECONSTRUCTIONS…….1895-2016 DATA) TO WHAT WE SEE RIGHT NOW OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE & A BLEND OF SHORT-, MEDIUM- & LONG-RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES BASED ON ALL TELECONNECTIC INDICES IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (WITH CORRESPONDING AIRMASS & PRECIPITATION PATTERNS)……….
A WILD RIDE IS AHEAD……………NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE FIGHT BETWEEN WINTER & SPRING OVER TRI-STATE………
Front Wobbling Back & Forth Over Area with Oscillating Temperatures Over Various Portions of the Tri-State…….Heavy Rainfall Possible….T’Storms……Gusty Winds……Icing…..Localized Flash & River Flooding………
From 60s to 70 with Gusty Winds & Showers/Few T’Storms to Rapid Temperature Fall & Light Ice Accumulations In Northwest Counties by Friday Morning……….
A record-warm night is on tap with temperatures steady or rising to 62-68 (66 Evansville area) with strong southerly winds at 20-40 mph. A few passing scattered showers are possible. Showers/few t’storms will increase tomorrow as a strong cold front moves through. Much colder air will move in behind it. Temperatures will be falling from northwest to southeast from mid-morning to evening with a wind shift to the northwest from the south & southwest. Winds may run 20-35 prior to frontal passage, then 15-25 mph afterward.
Highs Friday will run 62-64 in the northwest early, then fall. Highs of 64-67 are likely in the heart of the Tri-State (67 Evansville) near late morning-midday. 67-70 highs are likely over much of western Kentucky midday to mid-afternoon.
Tomorrow night, showers & isolated t’storms are likely. Rainfall will begin to change to freezing rain in the northwest counties (Clay, Richland, Wayne counties) generally after 2 a.m. Even outside of passing freezing rain showers, there may be light freezing drizzle falling there. Some light ice accumulation is possible by 7 a.m. Friday morning.
Showers & a Few T’Storms with Ice Accumulations in Northwest Chunk of Tri-State with Sharp Eye on How Far South & Southeast Freezing Line Will Get……….
There is a bit of question on just exactly how far south & southeast the freezing line will work Friday. It appears that it may get as far south as McLeansboro, Carmi, Owensville to Washington. The best potential of decent ice accumulations of 0.10 to 0.15″, especially on elevated surfaces (trees, powerlines, bridges & overpasses) will occur over Clay, Richland, Wayne & Edwards counties. Lesser accumulations will occur just south & east of this zone in Hamilton, part of White, part of Gibson, Knox & Daviess (IN) counties. An isolated freezing rain t’storm cannot be ruled out as unstable 60s/70 air is thrust up & over this front. A t’storm is possible in the Evansville area with temperatures steady around 37 all day. Afternoon highs will generally run 31 northwest to 37 Evansville to 44 southeast. STAY TUNED TO ANY SLIGHT CHANGES (EVEN 15 MILES) IN MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE.
If you are headed toward St. Louis, significant ice accumulations are possible there of 0.25-0.75″. Winter Storm Watch is up there right now with potential upgrade (depending on model trends) to Ice Storm Warning.
Freezing rain may fall off & on in our northwest chunk for 12 hours before changing to all rainfall Friday evening-night as temperatures see a subtle rise.
Showers & isolated t’storms are likely Friday night with temperatures rising to 35 northwest (40 Evansville) to 54 in the southeast over the Tri-State.
Additional Rainfall Saturday-Saturday Night with Large Temperature Divide Over Area……….
Additional rainfall with a couple isolated t’storms is likely Saturday-Saturday night with highs Saturday 37 northwest to 61 southeast (44 Evansville area). The warm front will fight cold air trying to bleed in from the north, so temperatures will tend to plateau around 37 in the northwest & 40s over the metro.
Rainfall For A While, Then Tapering with Warm Moving Well to the North Again…………..
Areas of rainfall will continue into Sunday as the warm front fights the cold trying to continued to move southward. By evening, the warm front will finally get a good push to the north & rainfall will shut off & temperatures will rise accordingly. By late Sunday evening, may run 47-66 over the Tri-State (56 Evansville area). Evansville may reach 62 by midnight, technically making Sunday’s high 62.
By this time, there may be lots of standing water in area fields & creeks may be very high, if not overflowing some. Rivers will be on the rise.
Areas of Heavy Rainfall with a Couple Isolated Severe T’Storms In the South & Southeast with Near/Record Warmth……….Then Cooler
Monday morning looks dry, but a few scattered showers will pass through from southwest to northeast in the afternoon with strong southwest winds +30 mph. Widespread rainfall & t’storms will likely pass Monday night-Tuesday morning. A quick 1-2″ of rainfall is possible (in addition to the rainfall we will likely have already seen), which may lead to flash flooding issues Monday night-Tuesday morning.
It is not completely out of the question that an isolated embedded severe t’storm or two passes over Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg to Ohio counties. Temperatures will be steady at 61-68 (64 Evansville area) Monday night after highs Monday of 61-70 (65 Evansville area).
Tuesday afternoon looks mostly cloudy with windy, drying conditions & falling temperatures through the 50s into the 40s. West to northwest winds may gust to 30 mph.
NEXT WEDNESDAY (JANUARY 18)-NEXT THURSDAY (JANUARY 19)…………
Very Mild to Warm & Dry with Frost & Patchy Dense Fog at Night………..
It looks dry & mild to warm at this point with partly cloudy skies, west to southwest winds & highs in the 51-61 range (53-58 Evansville). Lows will run 28-35 (around 31 Evansville area) with frost & patchy dense fog at night possible.
NEXT FRIDAY (JANUARY 20)-SUNDAY (JANUARY 22)…………..
Unusually Warm with a Couple Rounds of Showers & T’Storms……………
At this point, it looks like a couple rounds of showers & t’storms with highs 63-70 (65 Evansville area) with lows in the 50s to 60.
Very Mild to Warm & Dry with Frost & Patchy Dense Fog at Night………..
It still looks quite mild during this time with dry weather & highs in the 48-60 range (55 Evansville area) with partly cloudy skies & 26-35 (31 Evansville area) frost/some fog at night.
JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 4…………….
Much Colder with Below-Normal Temperatures & Potential of Wintry Precipitation Return…………
It continues to look likely that much colder weather (after some showers/t’storms late on 27th, which may end as a few flurries/snow showers for part of the area) will return during this period with highs in the 20s & 30s & lows in the teens & 20s (below-normal temperatures). Some wintry precipitation of either snow, sleet, freezing rain or all three may occur, given active branch of the subtropical branch tied to the MJO phase during this time. An atmospheric river in this jet may blast southern California with heavy rainfall.
The daffodils that will be up from the warmth & blooming snow drops (& perhaps budding Silver Maples) will get nipped by this cold weather.
Domination of Temperatures 15-20 Degrees Below-Normal with Potential of One or More Wintry Precipitation or Just All Snowfall Events………
Complete domination of cold with potential of more than one wintry precipitation or just snowfall event. Some daily highs will only run in the 20s with a couple/few nights as low as the single digits to lower teens.
Significant Warm-Up Possible with Strong Winds…………
Looks like a really significant warm-up as the great subtropical ridge builds back northward in this time period. Temperatures may end up peaking at 65-74 north to south over the area (70 Evansville). Strong south to southwest winds gusting over 30 mph on couple to multiple days are likely.
It appears a significant storm system with rain/storms (severe?) may pass on the 17th, bringing very sharp end to warmth.
Brief, But Intense Cold Snap Possible with a Winter Weather Event?
Temperatures look 20-25 degrees below normal with potential of a winter weather event as the subtropical jet will continue to be active with highs only perhaps only 17-26.
Rapid temperature rise to the 50s & 60s is possible during this time.